The flow pulse between bags was activated in the 2018 and 2022 bass markets. The indicator has also given «false» signs, so it should not be considered infallible. An indicator used to evaluate the behavior of investors in the Bitcoin (BTC) market suggests the possibility of starting a crypto -winter (a bearish season). This is the flow pulse between Exchange (IFP).
The IFP measures Bitcoin's movements between spot exchanges (direct asset trade) and derivatives (indirect trade of asset through instruments such as future). «When a significant amount of Bitcoin is transferred to derivative exchanges, the indicator indicates a bullish period,» explains analyst Maarten Regternchot (also known for his nickname, Maartunn). The reason is that this reflects that traders are moving coins to open Long (Alcistas) positions, he says. On the contrary, «when Bitcoin begins to flow outside the exchanges of derivatives to spot, indicates the beginning of a bearish period,» says the specialist. «This usually happens when long positions and large investors such as whales reduce their exposure to risk,» he deepens.
Understand how this indicator works is key, since «it has become bassist»Highlights the Maartunn. As seen below, it has been painted red in the last week, when detecting a predominance of bitcoin flows out of exchanges of derivatives to those of Spot.
IFP (blue line) and bitcoin price (white line). Source: Cryptoquant. The analyst stands out that this change suggests «a decrease in market risk appetite and potentially marks the beginning of a bearish phase.» As can be verified in the previous graph, This behavior happened in the bearish markets of 2018 and 2022, indicating the possibility of the start of crypto -win. However, the indicator has also given «false» signs in moments of price setback, so it should not be considered infallible. Without going any further, at the beginning and mid -last year he painted red, indicating the possible start of a crypto winter, but later BTC continued on the rise and that metric was green again.
Fear is hitting Bitcoin
IFP's return to red levels current From its historical maximum recorded three weeks ago of USD 109,300. In the last fortnight, its price has been revolving around USD 96,000. Anyway, the fall that BTC has received is within the normal correction percentages that it usually has in bullish cycles and has not lost the support it supports more than two months ago, as can be seen below. This maintains hopes at the technical level that the crypto -winter has not yet begun despite bearish indicators such as IFP.
Bitcoin price per day in the last three months. Source: TrainingView. Meanwhile, various Fear and Greed indices show that The feeling of the cryptocurrency market is currently afraid. Although, at the same time, as Cryptonotics reported, Bitcoin purchase options for new maximum historical prices in February and March currently predominate. In other words, the BTC market is experiencing mixed signals, that is, bassists and bulls, which translates the difference in opinions and uncertainty that currently crosses.