Key facts: BTC's performance in 2024 is similar to that seen in 2016 and 2020. Coinbase expects a more favorable environment in the last months of the year. As can be seen in the BitcoinDynamic Price Calculator, bitcoin (BTC) is trading at the time of this publication in the range close to $58,600. This means that it continues within the lateral range it has been in for five months below the all-time high it reached in March. The following chart, provided by TradingView, allows you to observe the behavior of the bitcoin price so far in 2024.
Bitcoin price as of January 1, 2024. Source: TradingView. However, based on historical behavior in the years that it has experienced a halving, this dynamic could end with an upward breakout. Historically, In the years in which there was a bitcoin halving, the price of the digital currency saw a sustained increaseHowever, this movement did not occur until the last months of the year, after going through periods of lateralization such as the current one. In 2012, when the first bitcoin halving took place, bitcoin registered an upward trend from the middle of the year. And in the following two, which occurred in 2016 and 2020, the price rose during the fourth quarter after extended lateralizations. With the third quarter currently underway while the price is still lateral, it shows a movement similar to the last two years of the halving. This can be seen in the following graph from the CryptoQuant analysis platform.
Bitcoin performance in the year in which each halving has occurred. Source: CryptoQuant. Also, The price has increased by 40% so far this year, despite the sideways movement scenario that continues. This is something that is similar to what has been seen in previous halving years. “The performance in 2024 is very similar to that of 2016 and 2020 so far,” said Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant. The market tends to repeat patterns due to mass psychology. Therefore, given the similarities with the past, the CryptoQuant director maintains that, “if the price is going to rise, it will be in the fourth quarter.” These statements take place considering that April was the most recent halving. This event, which halves the issuance of bitcoin every four years, reduces the new supply that miners release to the market, which enables the price to rise in response to demand.
The economic scenario allows for an increase at the end of 2024
CryptoQuant's executive's thinking correlates with that of the institutional team at the Coinbase exchangealthough due to different factors. “We anticipate a choppy market in the third quarter, but expect a more constructive environment for cryptocurrency markets to materialize in the fourth,” says Coinbase. As BitcoinDynamic reported, the exchange team bases this thought on the expected interest rate cut in the United States. The slowdown in inflation makes this monetary policy possible, which reduces bond yields and motivates investors to rotate to the markets. The next rate decision will take place in September, the month in which autumn also begins in the northern hemisphere. Such a season is usually positive for the markets, due to the reactivation of economic activities after the summer holidays.