The market of the cryptocurrencies The US usually welcomes interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This latest occasion was no different. bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded with conviction above $62,000 for the first time in almost a month after The US central bank has cut by 50 basis points (bp) the price of money. There are many voices that predict a bright future for the queen cryptocurrency, but also those who warn about the potential risks that can be seen in the short term.
Traditionally, interest rate cuts have been positive for cryptocurrencies. If the price of money falls, borrowing becomes cheaper, encouraging businesses and consumers to spend (or invest) more, and riskier assets like equities or cryptocurrencies themselves are often the beneficiaries of this increased spending. But this time it could be different. «For Bitcoin, the 50bp cut sends mixed signals. Historically, rate cuts have been positive for hard assets like Bitcoin, as such cuts are inflationary, causing capital to find its way into assets that can serve as stores of value. But This rate cut does not look like traditional monetary easing, but rather an emergency response. «in the face of growing economic instability,» explains Dave Birbaum, vice president and product director of the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbits in 'Forbes'. According to this expert, if the markets interpret this cut as a sign that The US economy is in «more trouble than expected»the crypto asset king «could be caught in a risk-off sell-off.» This is largely due to the increasing fear of a recession. Although major firms such as Goldman Sachs give little chance for the US economy to enter a crisis, Birbaum believes that the US labor market is beginning to show «signs of stress.» This weakness, together with the «sluggishness» of consumption and the disappointing US industrial production, paint a gloomy picture for the world's leading economy. On a global scale, the outlook is «equally worrying,» Birbaum stresses: Europe remains stagnant, while Japan faces growing inflationary pressures as it tries to end decades of ultra-lax monetary policy and the Chinese economy continues to falter, both on the consumption and employment side. «Despite initial optimism, medium- and long-term projections are not entirely encouraging. The Federal Reserve has indicated that Interest rates will remain high over these terms, which could dampen enthusiasm for risky assets.. While Bitcoin has shown great resilience following periods of uncertainty, its performance in this new monetary policy environment continues to raise doubts among analysts,” explains Antonio Ernesto Di Giacomo, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com. “The Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point cut is not just about managing US economic risks, but about responding to a global slowdown that could have far-reaching implications for all asset markets. For Bitcoin, this means navigating a highly volatile environment where macroeconomic forces exert an influence on price movements that is difficult to predict,” Birbaum stresses.
BULLISH ARGUMENTS
Despite this, Birbaum also has a positive view on bitcoin, since, despite the volatility it may experience, its long-term investment thesis remains «solid.» On the one hand, the Fed's rate cuts will continue weakening the dollarwhich historically has an inverse correlation to bitcoin. As the dollar hit a two-decade high in 2022, bitcoin was dragged down by a series of bankruptcies and scandals in the cryptocurrency sector. Since then, bitcoin has tripled in value, while the market expects the greenback to remain weak through the end of the year. «When central banks around the world are faced with economic weakness, their collective response is to increase the money supply. Whether through rate cuts, quantitative easing, or other forms of liquidity injection, the financial system increasingly relies on monetary expansion to sustain even modest growth. In the long term, this wave of monetary easing is likely to reinforce the appeal of bitcoin for those seeking refuge from the deterioration of fiat currency,» says Birbaum. According to this expert, politicization, investors may face short-term volatility, but «those who are convinced» of bitcoin's role as a «decentralized and solid monetary system» will see the Fed's rate cut «as another step towards validating its long-term value.» Other experts such as Willy Woo, an analyst and professional trader, highlight other factors that could support a bullish case for bitcoin, such as the supply of the king crypto asset itself. This strategist has indicated that, in recent days, significant amounts of bitcoin are being purchased The cryptocurrency market is seeing a sharp decline in the spot markets as the amount of bitcoin stored on cryptocurrency exchanges is shrinking. This is traditionally a bullish signal, as it is interpreted that if investors stop selling their cryptocurrencies it is because they expect higher prices in the future. «Current demand and supply are bearish neutral, but there are signs that they may move into a bullish structure if some liquidations occur,» Woo clarifies, while acknowledging that he remains «cautiously optimistic» about the outlook for bitcoin. On the other hand, other experts point out that the movements of bitcoin after each decision of the Fed are very similar to those experienced by technology stocks. In this sense, the analysis firm CryptoQuant has indicated that bitcoin has been correlating more strongly with the Nasdaq than with gold, whose correlation fell to negative values since the beginning of August. According to some analysts, bitcoin could do well as long as technology stocks continue to fly in the market.