The showcase of investment funds in 2025 draws attention, in many cases. According to data from the Association of Collective Investment Institutions (Inverco), in the field of national funds, Spanish equity funds have accumulated an average return of 31.66% in the first nine months of the year. The most conservative options have generated average returns below 2%, a level that fails to compensate for current inflation. On an international level, the ranking prepared by Morningstar reveals that funds linked to gold and other precious metals have seen increases in recent months that in many cases exceed 100%, driven by the global search for refuges from political and economic uncertainties. Funds focused on defense in Europe have also stood out, as well as those focused on Asian stocks, especially in China and Korea, with revaluations of more than 50%. On the opposite side, exposure to Russia and emerging markets in Eastern Europe has caused losses that in many cases exceed 50%. The temptation to jump on the moving bandwagon is understandable. So is vertigo. There are many stock markets and precious metals at highs and that arouses both enthusiasm and fear. Are these opportunities that still have a way to go? Is it time to collect profits and look to other horizons? Most of the analysts consulted agree that there are still factors that support risk assets, but they also call for caution. “Risk assets are moving in narrower terrain,” warns Thomas Hempell, head of macroeconomic and market analysis at Generali AM. In his opinion, the strength of the global economy, together with the gradual withdrawal of some extreme risks, continues to provide some support to equities. But it also warns: euro credit spreads are close to their post-global financial crisis lows, and US stock markets are at all-time highs. That is to say, part of the optimism would already be incorporated into the prices. From Deutsche Bank, its global investment director, Christian Nolting, is also constructive, although with nuances in his letter from the latest report on the entity’s outlook. “The earnings outlook is positive, and that supports our favorable view of equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic,” he notes. At the same time, he anticipates “temporary setbacks,” partly due to the risk of disappointment after a period of high expectations. The idea that markets rise by “climbing a wall of worry” is also shared by Mario Montagnani, strategist at Vontobel. “Business forecasts are optimistic, and the fiscal stimuli and rate cuts expected in 2026 can give new impetus to profits,” he summarizes. “It is natural for stock markets to experience ups and downs, but history shows that staying invested in the long term usually rewards the investor,” recalls Pablo Bernal, head of Vanguard for Spain. In his opinion, trying to anticipate the market “is almost impossible” and usually leads to lower returns since the best and worst days tend to occur very close to each other. A recent historical analysis prepared by Duncan Lamont, director of strategic research at Schroders, reinforces this thesis: in the last 100 years, the best stock market returns have often occurred after reaching historical highs. In fact, since 1926, the market has been at highs 31% of the time. “And the 12-month average returns after those peaks have been better than when the market was not at maximums,” points out Lamont. From Magallanes Value, Iván Martín introduces an essential nuance to the above: “a high valuation does not in itself equate to a bubble, nor does a low valuation guarantee a bargain.” In his opinion, the long-term arithmetic is stubborn: when you pay above the value, it is reasonable to expect discrete returns; When purchased at a discount, the odds lean toward higher returns. In this sense, Martín emphasizes that Europe – still underrepresented in global indices and with more attractive valuations than the US – could offer more diversification opportunities.
Gold and Asia shine
Another of the great protagonists of the year is gold. The spot price of gold has surpassed the famous threshold of $4,000 per troy ounce this week and continues to break new records every day. This year alone, gold has already hit 52 new all-time highs. The accumulated return so far this year is close to 54%, which already represents the highest annual return since 1979. In addition to the monetary component, gold has benefited from a historical demand by central banks, particularly China and India, as a diversification and de-dollarization strategy. “Although these figures have already broken records, we do not see a great downside risk,” explains Regina Hammerschmid, manager of raw materials portfolios at Vontobel. In his opinion, all structural (weakening of the dollar, concerns about US debt and government shutdown, Fed independence, elevated geopolitical risks) and cyclical factors (weakening of the US labor market, Fed rate cuts, growth concerns driven by tariffs) push gold up. For Claudio Wewel, currency strategist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, the current dynamic still has some way to go, especially if there is an outflow of flows from the cryptocurrency market, with a market capitalization of around 4 trillion dollars, towards traditional assets such as gold. “For now, the best alternative to the dollar is gold and not another currency,” also points out Ebury, a fintech specialized in currencies. Another of the investment phenomena of the year is occurring in Asia, especially in South Korea and China, where several equity funds have doubled their value. Expectations of economic growth and the rise of technologies such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors seem to explain, according to technicians, a good part of the pull, although they warn that volatility in this region remains high. In this sense, from Aberdeen, its investment director, Peter Branner, and Paul Diggle, its chief economist, predict that Chinese equities and those of emerging markets in general will continue recording good behavior. “Equity valuations in these markets remain more attractive than those in developed markets, and the weakness of the dollar should support the benefits of these markets,” they say. In general, not only about the Asian markets, precious metals, the European stock markets (especially the Spanish one) but, about any financial asset, experts specify that, now more than ever, at maximums in many areas, it is advisable to be aware that past returns never guarantee future behavior.