The house will continue to be the main reason for revolt and concern for thousands of citizens around vacations. Without hot cloths: both the purchase and rental price will increase again in the second half of the year, which places the difficulty of access at unsustainable levels. The market has become completely crazy and is unassumable for much of the population; It even begins to be for high salaries. Sellers, or real estate agencies, in their absence, take advantage of high demand and supply deficit, and set prices as if they deal with raw diamonds. The thickness of analysts does not contemplate that prices stop growing and much less one descended from these. Although some begin to see a turning point on the horizon. Within the first group the majority diagnosis speaks of more more expensive in the second half of the year, but somewhat less intensity. Santiago Carbó, Professor of Economics at the University of Valencia and Funcas researcher, believes that it is soon to talk about a change of course for the coming months. «Unfortunately, prices will rise around 8% or more,» he says. «When you start to glimpse an increase in construction and finished homes, especially in the most tension cities, we could see a change. Before it is very complicated,» he says. In the opinion of José García Montalvo, Professor of Economics at the Pompeu Fabra University, they will continue to rise in the second half of the year, but also believes that they will do it «slower.» The average price of new and used housing registered in June an increase of 10.6% year -on -year, according to Tinsa by Accumin. If the focus only on the new floors, these were more than 7.5%, up to 3,151 euros per square meter, marking a record, according to the appraisal society. This firm provides for an 8.7% increase by the end of the year, so that a brand new floor will cost 329,100 euros. The European Central Bank (ECB) now maintains the price of money in 2%, something that has stimulated operations: “About 20% of those who had paralyzed the purchase process have returned to the market with more interest,” says María Matos, director of studies and spokesman for Fotocasa. «The mortgage market has been encouraged and there are people who have tired of waiting, have a job and partner and have decided to buy, even if it is expensive,» adds Carbó. Economist García Montalvo justifies that the factors that drive prices growth are still very present. «There is a clear accumulated deficit that will not allow the pressure on the price to be dismissed. The strength of the demand is very large (it grows to 35% in terms of housing for the purchase) and the transactions increase at rates of 40%.» Here the problem resides, in addition to the purchases made by investors or the tourist rental: the huge structural imbalance between supply and demand. «Currently, the demand quadruples the available supply, in fact, the demand is maximum,» says Matos, of Fotocasa. The portal is detecting the most intense price variations (14.9% year -on -year in June in used housing) since it has records. In addition, this phenomenon is not located, since it affects 94% of the provinces and 86% of the municipalities. «At the national level, the increases will remain above 10%» in the second part of the year, Vaticina Matos. The number of housing initiated grew by 2024 a 23% year -on -year and in the first quarter of the year the rise has been 11.5%. In the case of protected houses, the increase has been around 8%. The residential construction progresses, although it still does not reach the necessary levels to close the gap. Gonzalo Bernardos, professor of the Department of Economy of the University of Barcelona, also does not contemplate short -term price drops, not even in 2026. It highlights an important change, and it is the “mass purchase” of first home by many tenants, especially “people with high income who were living for rent”. The idea is to get out of the rental trap. And he adds: «In recent months, the race has bought a house because they are not sure that the owner renews the contract.» Do not forget that more than 300,000 homes face the update of their contracts. Increasingly impulsive purchase decisions are being made thinking that next month the floor will be even more expensive. And rightly.
A complex balance
Bernardos insists that he sees “very difficult” that in the next times he demands and supply is balanced if there are no three conditions: “A great rise in interest rates, a banking crisis – because the banks again grant a loan to the whole world – or an important recession of the Spanish economy,” ditch. Something that, in principle, is not contemplated. The director of economic situation of Funcas, Raymond Torres, however, speaks in other terms and is unmarked about the majority opinion. It is more optimistic. «We are close to a turning point.» Its reasoning is that the price of housing is already above its equilibrium value, that is, the purchase capacity of most households. «This is due to inflation of expectations: the anticipation of new price increases has become a crucial factor in the decision of an investor to buy housing.» He believes that a moderation of price increases in the coming months is being created. «It is not ruled out that prices experience falls within 2026 in large cities or areas where the imbalance is evident.» Carbó shares that the situation is increasingly unsustainable, «but we have been talking about this two or three years and has not stopped.» In the mortgage chapter, for the last months of the year, the fixed one will charge more prominence, in front of the mixed and the variable. And that the Euribor closed July at 2,079%. They look for security. «The fixed mortgage offers that tranquility, with very competitive interest rates, around 2% TIN and even below in some cases,» explains the general director of IaHerro, Marcel Beyer. In rent things are not better. The income rose 13.7% year -on -year in June, the highest rise in the last 18 years, according to Fotocasa. He chains eight consecutive months growing double digit. In the second half of the year the increase will continue if it is not put in the market offer and, above all, affordable. The tenants expect the arrival of the Portal of the State Housing Company that has launched the Government where cheap rentals can be requested.
