It's time, like every year, to roll the dice on analysts' forecasts about what will happen in the financial markets in 2025. And this time the face of the president-elect of the United States, Donald Trump, appears in many of them as a determining factor. . His electoral announcements of tax cuts, new tariffs, limits on emigration (including deportations), financial deregulation and support for cryptocurrencies, among others, will mark the future of global stock markets, bonds and also the evolution of exchange rates . The year 2025 begins with an unprecedented dependence on the new tenant of the White House, although we must see how these protectionist electoral promises end up materializing. The world of money will also continue to be conditioned by the war conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to which which adds “Europe as a new political risk factor,” according to Paul Diggle, chief economist at the fund manager abrdn. This expert points out the German elections on February 23, and the political and fiscal instability in France as factors to closely monitor. The progress of the world economy will also be decisive in setting the price of assets. The growth leader of the developed world will once again be the United States. The market consensus sets a growth of 1.9% for its GDP. “We expect that the US will continue to show differential growth, while the eurozone and China could face downward risks due to Trump's trade policy,” they explain from Renta 4. However, in Europe, the forecasts are less promising. The average forecast of analysts points to a GDP increase of 1.2% over the next year for the Eurozone. The other major economic pole, China, will register an increase in GDP that ranges between 4.5% and 4%, lower than the 4.8% with which it will end in 2024 and insufficient to correct the economic imbalances suffered by the Asian giant. The other great asset for the future of the markets are the interest rates, after the reductions applied by the central banks of Europe (ECB) to 3% and the United States (Federal Reserve) to 4.25% with the that end the year. The evolution of prices is the key to the price of money continuing to fall and, in this sense, investors are once again looking at Trump and his protectionist policies which, by definition, are inflationary. Deutsche Bank analysts indicate that rates at the end of 2025 would be 2% in Europe and between 3.75% and 4% in the US. Goldman Sachs also believes that interest rate cuts will continue to occur during 2025. It indicates the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates to the level of 3.25% or 3.5%, with these cuts concentrated especially in the first quarter of the year. In the case of Europe, it points to a reduction of up to 1.75%, motivated by the cut in economic growth forecasts. Finally, business profits will be decisive in the evolution of the stock markets and will also depend on Trump's policies . The profits of American corporations should be boosted by the promised tax cuts and by an economy that is growing at twice the rate of the European one. Analysts expect double-digit growth on average for earnings per share in American companies, while placing the increase in European companies at around 4% or 6% on average. Below are the analysts' forecasts for the main companies. asset classes in 2025.
Bag
The large managers and banks agree that 2025 will be a year with challenges, but with clear opportunities in stocks, despite the strong increases experienced in 2024, greater than 20% on Wall Street and much more modest in the European EuroStoxx 50 that accumulates an increase of 9%. In the opinion of experts, US equities continue to have the most potential, driven by their economic growth and the rise of sectors such as artificial intelligence. In Europe, although valuations are attractive, growth catalysts are limited in the short term. Renta 4 highlights that equities will continue to have structural support, such as lower interest rates, high liquidity and growth in results. In terms of regions, it prioritizes investment in the United States and Spain, with a growth potential of 16% for the Ibex, which could reach 13,800 points in 2025. For Europe, this bank maintains a more neutral approach at the beginning of the year, waiting for catalysts such as further rate cuts, the end of the war in Ukraine and fiscal policies in key countries such as Germany. Luis Artero, investment director of JPMorgan Private Banking for Spain, indicates that the The last two years of better US relative profitability could continue. “Our outlook for the S&P 500 remains positive, with a central target of 6,400 points by the end of 2025. He adds: “We remain optimistic about business results, anticipating solid double-digit growth in both 2025 and 2026. Our preferred sectors in the US market today are technology, industrial, public services and financial.” Citi offers a more optimistic view on Europe compared to other analysts, estimating that The Euro Stoxx 600 will rise 10% and close 2025 at 570 points. According to Beata Manthey, chief strategist of the American bank, the current moment could be ideal to bet on Europe again, highlighting cyclical sectors such as technology, luxury and mining, driven by global growth and improved business results. Citi believes that the tariffs that the United States could apply under a possible Donald Trump mandate will have a limited impact on the Old Continent. From Mutuáculos, manager Ignacio Dolz de Espejo shows a more cautious approach, maintaining a neutral positioning in equities. This expert recognizes the strength of growth in the United States, where a 12% increase in corporate profits is expected, but warns that their valuations, at 24 times profits, are very high. Europe and China, although less dynamic in terms of growth, offer more attractive valuations, which could favor more selective investors. Santander Asset Management highlights that S&P 500 earnings growth will reach 12% in 2025, driven mainly by artificial intelligence, innovation and cyclical sectors more sensitive to interest rates. In Europe, Santander's asset management division points out that the recovery of earnings revisions and historically low valuations against the United States present significant potential for revaluation. Vera Fehling, head of investments for Europe at the German manager DWS, In 2025, it grants a potential return of 6% to 7% for European equities and 12% for American equities. However, they point out a difference in GDP growth, with the US projecting 2% compared to 0.9% in the European Union. This economic disparity marks a clear preference for US assets.
Fixed income
Unlike the good performance of the stock markets last year, bonds continue to show erratic movements. Not only do we have to keep an eye on the central banks, but we also have to consider the high volume of debt in the economies and the possibility that public deficits will continue to skyrocket, especially in the United States after Trump's victory. The global public debt has exceeded 100 trillion dollars, and is close to 100% of global GDP. The US public debt far exceeds 100% of GDP and the deficit is 6.7%. “Trump's policies could further increase the US debt and deficit, and cause a rise in term premiums on US debt,” explains Paul Diggle, chief economist at abrdn. This means that rates in the United States will remain high above 4% within 10 years, even if the Federal Reserve continues to lower the price of money. Artero, from JPMorgan Private Banking, expects central banks to continue with their path of interest rate cuts in 2025. “Interest rates have already fallen 1% since reaching peak levels in both Europe and the United States, and we expect further cuts in the coming year. Our conviction about these cuts is greater in Europe, which leads us to prefer taking duration risk for bond portfolios in Europe. For the US, we prefer to focus on the shortest end of the maturity spectrum to help mitigate the impact of possible volatility in rates,” he explains. Fund manager Fidelity recommends three great ideas for fixed-income investors: investment bonds graded in dollars, which offer protection against a possible recession; short duration bonds at a global level, which guarantee acceptable total returns; and Asian high yield bonds. The firm highlights the interest in corporate debt which, “with consistent returns, continues to be a pillar for generating income in portfolios.” Kevin Thozet, from Carmignac's investment committee, considers that the economic scenario for 2025 favors corporate bonds. short-term investment grade and high yield bonds. According to Thozet, these options offer predictable income and an adequate cushion to offset bad economic news. In addition, it points out that inflation-linked bonds have a particular appeal in the current context of inverted yield curves and persistent inflationary pressures. At Santander AM, for their part, they recommend corporate bonds in the eurozone and the United Kingdom along with the Latin American fixed income, preferably in dollars. In particular, they highlight that corporate bonds «will continue to be a focus of demand, with credit spreads close to minimums and attractive returns that will contribute to recurring income in portfolios.» The German manager DWS also sees interesting opportunities in certain fixed income categories, highlighting investment grade corporate bonds in euros as its favorite asset, with an expected 12-month return of 4.7%.
Currencies and cryptocurrencies
The electoral victory of Donald Trump in the United States last November was a real shock for the main cryptocurrency, bitcoin, which before the meeting at the polls was moving at $67,858 and now exceeds $104,000, which represents an increase of 54%. The keys to this meteoric rise are found in the Republican president's commitment to cryptocurrencies, materialized in the use of bitcoin as a reserve currency and in the appointment of Paul Atkins as the new president of the Securities Commission, the SEC. Atkins is in favor of developing the cryptocurrency environment and eliminating the obstacles of his predecessor, Gary Gensler. The institutionalization of bitcoin receives new support after the creation in 2024 of spot exchange traded funds in the cryptocurrency and the interest of some companies in having part of their liquidity in bitcoins.
As for the dollar, it has also experienced a rebound under Trump, although here more economic reasons weigh in: more inflation in the United States, more growth and higher interest rates compared to Europeans, for example, attract capital to the greenback. Only the Swiss bank UBS sees a long-term horizon of depreciation of the dollar against the euro at the end of 2025 around 1.12 dollars per euro, although they do not rule out that “tax cuts, immigration controls and tariffs support the dollar in the short term.”
However, Deutsche Bank analysts see the euro 3% below its current levels, around $1.02. The US bank Goldman Sachs places the euro exchange rate at $1.03 for the end of 2025: “We hope that superior growth and a more gradual approach to rate cuts by the Fed will continue to support the dollar. On the other hand, the euro faces a situation of political instability and trade uncertainty amid already weak growth, which, in our view, is not a recipe for currency strength.” Along the same lines, Renta 4 expects that the strength of the dollar will be maintained in the short term, with a euro that could approach parity with the greenback.
