The escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict appears to have imploded, affecting the price of bitcoin (BTC). The cryptocurrency has seen a drop of close to 7% in the last two days. Many investors and traders have viewed the price of bitcoin with surprise. Now, weren't these falls already expected on the occasion of the halving? According to trader Rekt Capital, the recoil history that usually occurs in the pre-halving stage of bitcoin was already determined. Now bitcoin reacted to the war conflict by visiting an area that it discovered on March 5, falling to the $60,000 range from which it rebounded slightly. Just a few days left until the halvingbitcoin is still in that typical retracement zone before the event. Although, as reported by BitcoinDynamic, the digital currency does not operate in a vacuum, but is related to the macroeconomy, fundamentally nothing has changed at a structural level with its price and its trend, which remains bullish. An analyst named Crypto Kakarot assures that it is still bullish on the market and that it is only seeing a consolidation on the monthly chart of bitcoin. He points out that whenever we approach the bitcoin halving, something mysteriously happens that spreads fear in the market, which affects prices.
Bitcoin continues to trade above all-time highs. Source: Crypto Kakarot; in X.
The market view of some analysts
David Battaglia points out that while wars are usually bad for fiat money, “nothing has changed in the fundamentals of bitcoin and from the first missile was launched, until the last, the network continued to produce blocks.”
«Imagine trying to escape from a conflict with millions of dollars in gold to see if you can, imagine entrusting your gold to vaults in countries at war, trying to sell or pay for something with your gold in a city at war and militarized.» David Battaglia, bitcoin and cryptocurrency analyst.
GustavoBolsa, for its part, assumes that bitcoin is a risk asset, and predicts a negative market opening on Monday for “risk on” assets”. This negative phase would not last long, in his opinion, since volatility “will be reduced as certainty is priced in the different assets.” This analyst summarizes by saying that the market will open with strong falls that will give way to a later and “juicy rebound.” At the time of writing, funding rates in bitcoin are placed in the negative. For both SantinoCripto and Bitcoin Mungerthis sign has always good news meaning for bitcointhat is to say, prices close to local land and great purchasing opportunities.
BTC funding rates. Source: Coinglass; at SantinoCripto. Funding rates serve as part of a mechanism, in futures and derivatives trading, to keep the price of perpetual contracts aligned with the spot price of bitcoin.
Bloodbath in altcoins
Meanwhile, the most affected have been the altcoins, which have been bathed in blood during these corrections. Some have experienced falls on the weekly chart of up to 30% in its price.
Some traders see this as a market reset, a new opportunity for those who have been sidelined in recent months. Others, such as Benjamin Cowen, indicate that altcoins They could still go down 38% from where they are based on historical data from TOTAL3.
TOTAL3 shows a decline in the boom in altcoins. Source: TradingView; in X. The TOTAL3 is a metric that collects the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies except bitcoin and ethereum. This indicator is useful, along with bitcoin dominance, to predict the price behavior of altcoins. In conclusion, the war conflict that affected the price of bitcoin does not break the forecast patterns for the asset. While an escalation of the conflict could alter the price structure in bitcoin, this crypto asset maintains its upward trend in the medium and long term. Although altcoins are beginning to show attractive prices, caution is recommended when trading them. These are much more sensitive than bitcoin to negative news and contexts.