Will Mexico fall into recession in 2025? That is one of the questions that analysts and observers of the Mexican economy are asking with increasing frequency. The main factor behind these concerns is the low dynamism that is already beginning to be observed in various national economic indicators. The Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) for October, for example, already showed negative growth in its annual comparison for the first time since the pandemic ended (-0-3%). For its part, the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) also allows us to anticipate a stagnation of the economy in its annual comparison during the last months of 2024. Similarly, the Bank of Mexico has already reported falls in formal employment figures in all regions of the country during the last quarter of 2024, once the figures are corrected for seasonal factors. Another factor that contributes to concern about the performance of the Mexican economy in 2025 is an empirical regularity that has been observed at the beginning of each of the last four administrations in Mexico. This means that during the first year of a new administration there is normally less growth (approximately between 1.5 and 2 percentage points) than during the last year of the previous administration. The explanation for this regularity is attributed to the slowdown in the exercise of public spending due to the change of Government and the caution of private investors in the face of a potential change in public policies. Given that in 2024 it is anticipated that we will grow by around 1.5%, if this empirical regularity were to be met, the growth in 2025 could be close to zero or even slightly negative. In addition to the above, there are two other elements that contribute to feeding concerns about the future performance of the Mexican economy: one has to do with the economic policy that is being implemented and another is associated with the growing uncertainty that affects the business environment. With respect to the first, it is evident that both fiscal and monetary policies are aligned in a restrictive dimension. On the one hand, the fiscal policy planned for 2025 requires a significant adjustment in public spending with the objective of reducing the size of the budget deficit from 5% of GDP in 2024 to just 3.2% in 2025. This austerity policy implies a cut in spending of approximately 1.5 percentage points of GDP. The impact that this adjustment in public spending will have on aggregate demand remains to be seen, but it is evident that the fiscal impulse derived from this policy is clearly contractionary. On the other hand, monetary policy is also in a clearly restrictive stance. Even after the reductions in the interest rate that have occurred in recent policy decisions, a nominal interest rate of 10% implies a real rate higher than 6%, which is well above the zone considered neutral and , therefore, is located in a clearly restrictive area. In this sense, both fiscal and monetary policies could contribute to an even greater slowdown of the Mexican economy in 2025. Regarding the issue of uncertainty, it is fueled by two means: one domestic and one foreign. The domestic part is explained by the constitutional reforms that have been recently approved and that have been perceived by the private sector as a sign of a deterioration in the country's institutional environment. The judicial reform, the disappearance of the autonomous bodies and, more recently, the possible reform of Infonavit, all of them have contributed to generating a perception of reduction in the counterweights to the Government's decisions and, to that extent, have contributed to fueling the economic uncertainty in Mexico. The foreign part of the increase in economic uncertainty in the country comes directly from the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States and his threatening rhetoric against Mexico. The constant threat of imposing tariffs on Mexican exports, the possibility of mass deportations and a potential deterioration in bilateral relations that could lead to a profound review of the trade agreement between Mexico, the United States and Canada, are all elements that cannot be They contribute to an environment conducive to investment and stability in the country. In summary, the country will face 2025 in an extremely complicated economic environment. The lack of economic dynamism that is already observed, the historical background of the first years of a new Government, fiscal austerity, restrictive monetary policy and the increase in uncertainty due to internal and external factors, all of this could contribute to the economy Mexican economy fell inexorably into an episode of economic recession, with one or two quarters of negative economic growth and relatively low annual growth (although it could be positive). The great challenge of conducting economic policy in 2025 will be to try to avoid something that for now seems imminent.