Key facts: For David Battaglia, the improvement in the inflation data in the US would boost the price of bitcoin. The bitcoin specialist described the German government's BTC sales as a «historic mistake.» Bitcoin (BTC) seems to have ended that negative streak of red candles that began in the first week of June 2024. On July 15, the cryptocurrency opened the day in the $60,700 area and closed above $65,000, a price it had not reached since June 21, 2024. Another encouraging fact that drives this upward movement of BTC could be extracted from the performance of bitcoin-based ETFs in the United States. These instruments have eleven consecutive days with positive net inflows in which they accumulated inflows of almost $2.5 billion. This recovery in the price of the digital asset with the largest market capitalization in the world can be seen more clearly in the following TradingView chart. While on June 7, 2024, BTC stopped again at $70,000, before falling to around the $53,000 mark, at the beginning of July, Bitcoin showed signs of improvement and returned to the green path.
Bitcoin price expressed in daily candles. Source: TradingView. Regarding the current situation and the near future of the cryptocurrency, BitcoinDynamic spoke with Venezuelan bitcoin analyst David Battaglia, who detailed his positive vision and classified those red candles as a correction within a bullish market.
CryptoNews (CN): Why has BTC fallen in price since the first week of June?
David Battaglia (DB): It's just a correction within a bull market. This situation is typical after such a spectacular rise that led Bitcoin to mark a high even before the halving. Therefore, it is normal for things to cool down a bit before the continuation of the trend.
CN: What macroeconomic data do you evaluate as positive or negative for the BTC projection for the coming months and 2025?
DB: The improvement in inflation figures in August and September are key as we are likely to be at 2.9% and 2.8%. This will be hailed as the Fed's victory over inflation, which will lead the market to rally before the rate cuts come.
CN: Could a recession start in the US? How would that impact BTC and the cryptocurrency ecosystem?
DB: The initial reaction will be a sharp correction across all risk asset classes. Cash will seek refuge in bonds first, then those bonds will be used as collateral to create credit and then that money will flow back into risk assets. This situation will also keep bond yields down.
CN: Is there a relationship between BTC performance and the performance of traditional assets (S&P500, for example)?
DB: Yes, absolutely, since everything is quoted in dollars, the strength or weakness of the dollar, via interest rates, is what generates market cycles. It should also be noted that the trading volume in bitcoin futures is dominated by the CME.
Battaglia analyzed the current situation of BTC. Source: Youtube.
CN: How will the US elections influence BTC's projection?
DB: If Donald Trump wins, it will be positive for bitcoin since he is a candidate who supports the virtual currency, and he will also be receiving a country with an economy devastated by the bad policies of Powell's FED. So the dismissal of the FED president, interest rate and tax cuts will be the cocktail to stimulate the economy in recession.
CN: What is your assessment of the German government's BTC sales? How could this behaviour affect the price of Bitcoin?
DB: A historic mistake. Its effect is very limited and it is already over.
CN: What relationship could be built between the cryptocurrency and Artificial Intelligence industries?
DB: Bitcoin is native internet money, AI is native internet intelligence, therefore it will be the dominant form of payment with all the applications that can use AI to generate cross-border payments.
CN: What is missing for the implementation of ETH and SOL ETFs? How will they influence the digital ecosystem?
DB: Personally, I don't see the point in ETFs for these two products. Their impact is expected to be positive for the price of these assets in the long term if investors see the point in investing in both.