Is a more valuable bitcoin exaggerated than gold? Maybe now, but in a few years … several price projections support Krueger's thesis. During millennia, gold was the undisputed refuge to preserve value. For that reason, the fact that Bitcoin (BTC), with just 16 years of existence, already competes for that place is not an issue that can be ignored. Is that it is not a passing fad or something exclusive to a niche, but of an important change in the traditional financial world. Proof of this is the growing interest of governments and companies, which already see it as an asset with a greater potential than the gold. This indication that adoption and confidence in Bitcoin are reaching a new level could bring their value to unthinkable figures 16 years ago. Therefore, when Fred Krueger, an investor and financial market analyst, says that «Bitcoin should be worth 10 times more than gold, and not vice versa,» it is not a phrase to just attract attention or generate controversy with whom they continue to believe that BTC is a risk asset. It is also to rethink the current financial order and question historical narratives. Because Krueger's statement does is neither more nor less than investing a historical issue: Bitcoin should be the dominant asset above gold. It is to stop thinking about metal as the refuge par excellence in times of uncertainty and start seeing BTC as the true value standard today. A vision that, far from being utopian, gains strength with the growing adoption by large institutions and governments. But this change is not only theoretical, but it has concrete implications in the price and market capitalization of BTC. If BTC came to multiply its current value by 10, its price would go from 109,561 dollars to about 1.1 million, and its market capitalization would reach 21.8 billion dollars (Trillions, in English), approaching the current value of gold, which is located at 22.1 billion. But for BTC worth 10 times more than gold, each BTC would have to quote above 11 million dollars, while its market capitalization would be 221.06 billion dollars. Although today it may seem exaggerated to think that Bitcoin reaches those price levels, in a few years that possibility does not sound so far -fetched. Is that the currency created by Satoshi Nakamoto emerges as a solid alternative against gold precisely by Your scheduled scarcity.
As cryptootics has reported, the production of gold does not stop growing, driven by both mining and recycling, which represents between 25% and 30% of the annual supply. To this are added technological advances such as nuclear transmutation that, although it is still in an experimental stage, in the future could expand the supply of precious metal. Among recycled gold, mining reserves and new technologies, the market faces a possible excess supply that questions the sustainability of the value of the metal and could affect its role as a reserve of value. Given this scenario, opportunities are opened for more scarce and resistant alternatives, such as Bitcoin. For its part, BTC has a supply limited to 21 million units and its broadcast is reduced every four years in an event known as Halving. This immutable policy is a factor that influences the medium and long term price. It is a characteristic that positions it as a protection against the devaluation of Fíat money and excess gold supply. Your value proposal is unique. These characteristics are those that have captured the attention of companies and governments, which are incorporating BTC at a more accelerated pace. As Cryptonoticia already reported, the company that popularized this trend was Strategy, which since 2022 deployed an aggressive BTC accumulation model. Currently, it is the firm that quotes in the stock market with more units in its treasury, with more than 580,000 BTC.
10 public contribution companies with more Bitcoin in its treasury (Strategy's number is outdated). Source: Bitcintreasuries. In addition, not only companies and governments – like El Salvador or the United States – are accumulating BTC, but also doing great managers such as Fidelity, Blackrock or Grayscale, who have launched their respective funds quoted in the stock exchange (ETF) in the cash of Bitcoin. This opens the doors to massive capital flows from pension funds and more traditional investors. Since their departure to the market in January 2024, these financial instruments accumulate money tickets for 44,530 million dollars.
Inputs and money outputs in the ETFs of BTC. Source: Sosovalue. This institutional demand positions BTC within the financial system, and exerts direct bullish pressure on the price because the amount of bitcoin available is reduced in circulation. In simple terms, each capital entrance increases the shortage of the asset and even more value its value. For that reason, it is not surprising that key figures of the ecosystem make projections similar to that of Krueger. Michael Saylor, president of Strategy and maximalist Bitcoiner, projects that the price of digital asset, in a base scenario, It will be 13 million dollars in 2045. For him: «Bitcoin is the asset with the greatest monetary value in the world. It is superior to the paladium, gold, silver, copper, land, cattle and cash, ”he says. Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Invest, agrees that BTC's potential is transformative. According to its projections, if consolidated as a global reserve asset, its price could exceed the barrier of 2.4 million dollars by 2030.
Bitcoin is a unique asset
The discovery of new gold reserves (even with the future possibility of extraction in space) highlights a key difference that makes BTC unique: its limited, known and immutable supply. Why is it important to point out this issue? Because it means that if that increase in gold supply is not accompanied by greater demand, its price will tend to fall. Instead, the BTC supply will remain 21 million units. And if more companies and governments decide to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve of value, the pressure on demand will be such that it will boost its “to the moon” price (to the moon, in Spanish), as Krueger, Saylor, Wood, among others, among others. The perception of Bitcoin as «digital gold» explains the attraction it has for companies and governments, because it is a decentralized and censorship active. It is a protective shield against government decisions, monetary policies of central banks and the excessive emission of Fíat money. With these arguments on the table, Krueger's projections become a possible scenario. If there is a greater increase in demand, and Bitcoin narrative is consolidated as a reserve asset, Not only will it be a matter of seeing a BTC quote in seven figures, but the confirmation of a reconfiguration of the global financial system.
Is it exaggerated to think of a more valuable bitcoin than gold? Maybe today. But in a few years, maybe that question no longer makes sense. And what would need to completely change the rules of the game? That Bitcoin ceases to be perceived as a risk asset and, thus, finish consolidating his narrative as «digital gold» or value reserve.
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