The price of bitcoin (BTC) in Mexican pesos (MXN) experienced a rise of more than 5% this June 3, after learning of the victory of candidate Claudia Sheinbaum, who has just become the first female president of the Aztec country. According to CoinGekco statistics, the value of the digital currency jumped in the last few hours, within the framework of the elections that took place in Mexico. In this way, it went from being quoted in the order of 1,146,000 pesos, in the early hours of June 2, until reaching a peak of 1,221,000 during the morning of this June 3. And although at the close of this edition the value of BTC in MXN has dropped to around 1,214,000, the jump made by the digital currency in Mexico approached the historical maximum of 1,375,114 pesos reached November 8, 2021.
The value of BTC in MXN took a significant jump this June 3. Source: Coingecko. The rise in the price of bitcoin in the country was accompanied by a substantial growth in the cryptocurrency's trading volume, which rose by more than 100% in the last 24 hours. It went from 176,672 million pesos on June 2 to 456,735 million today. A trend that increased during the week, as the election date approached. The rise became stronger after the results of the elections were known, that gave the victory to Sheinbaum, candidate of the ruling party which had the support of almost 60% of the electorate. Her advantage over the opponent Xóchilt Gálvez, who came in second place, was 30 points. The increase in the value of bitcoin in pesos points to greater interest among Mexican investors in cryptocurrencies. This, despite the fact that the bitcoin theme was left out of the electoral campaign. None of the candidates presented any plan related to the regulation or functioning of the ecosystem, giving priority to other issues. As BitcoinDynamic reported, during the electoral campaign, Sheinbaum was closed to the use of cryptocurrencies, and did not propose projects related to bitcoin. It is therefore expected that, during his mandate, the country's finances follow the conservative line maintained by the current president Andrés Manual López Obrador (popularly known as AMLO), who did not support the sector. In this way, the growing interest of Mexicans in cryptocurrencies occurs in an environment in which the political and economic changes applied by the new president of Mexico are expected, probably do not include bitcoin companies and users.
The markets pending Morena's «supermajority» in Congress
The rise in the price of bitcoin in pesos also occurs in a context in which the Mexican currency loses value against the US dollar. Calculations indicate that for this date the MXN is trading at 17.52 pesos per dollar, registering a 2.5% drop this Monday. The decline is attributed to the markets' evaluation of the overwhelming victory of the Morena party and its influence on the recomposition of political forces in the Congress of Mexico. The achievement of a qualified supermajority in the Lower House, which will probably be replicated in the Senate, is the focus of attention due to its influence on government decisions. If popular support for Morena is repeated in the Senate, it is then estimated that Sheinbaum enjoys «superpowers» for the implementation of the legislative and structural reforms promised in her campaign, and that contemplate constitutional reforms.
«Maintaining the parliamentary majority provides several advantages, among them: the direction of parliament and greater ease of approval of legislative projects,» comment analysts such as Claudia Ceja, strategist at BBVA Mexico. A majority in Congress could give way to pension or minimum wage reforms, as well as reforms to the judiciary. Changes of which global observers are watching, mainly if they lead to greater tax expenditure. Concern persists even though Sheinbaum has tried to calm the markets by ensuring the continuity of the current Secretary of the Treasury, Rogelio Ramírez, and promising that he will continue the fiscal prudence strategy applied by AMLO in the last six years. That is why Morgan Stanley experts expect that, after this slight drop, the currency recovers. Above all, taking into account that during the López Obrador mandate the peso was among the best performing currencies in the world. It is thus estimated that possible changes in policy will lead to temporary weakness of the peso, with subsequent increases that would exceed 10% with respect to current levels.