Key facts: If historical patterns continue, bullish months are possible for BTC. A macroeconomic scenario is developing that favors the boost in demand. The price of bitcoin (BTC) is showing days of high volatility. At the time of this publication, it is trading at less than $60,000 on the main exchanges and has fallen by almost 4% in the last 24 hours. But this high volatility is not something new. This is how bitcoin has been behaving since March, after it reached its last historical high close to $74,000. Since then, the digital currency has entered a sideways trend from which it cannot escape, as can be seen in the following graph:
Bitcoin price since January 2024. Source: TradingView If you look at the price performance of bitcoin so far in 2024, it is possible to compare it with its performance in 2023. After a rise at the beginning of the year, it remains as it was then in a long lateral period. Although there is a difference that draws attention. The technical analyst known on social networks as «CryptoCon» distinguishes that «bitcoin in 2024 is like in 2023 but with a month delay.» As shown by the following graph, The price of the digital currency shows similar movements to the previous year, with the difference of one month in advance.
Bitcoin price comparison in 2023 and 2024. Source: CryptoCon. In fact, the analyst highlights that bitcoin’s recent rally to $65,000 (USD) as the end of August approaches aligns with the local high it experienced in September 2023. The blue arrow indicates this on the chart. “This has been going too well,” CryptoCon comments, noting that price patterns tend to repeat themselves due to market psychology. “Now we are just waiting for the next local low,” the specialist says. With the pullback that bitcoin is showing this week after the recent rally, the price continues to reflect similarities with last year. “Everything is preparing for the recovery in September,” the analyst emphasizes according to the aforementioned pattern analysis.
A positive scenario for bitcoin is possible in the last months of 2024
As can be seen in the chart above, in October 2023, the price of BTC broke the sideways trend it had been in since April, continuing its upward movement. In that sense, If we follow its behavior this year a month in advance, the currency would reach new historical highs in September. Trading around USD 62,000 at the time of writing, bitcoin is 15% below the all-time high it recorded in March 2024. It is from such a record that its price dipped below in a lateral consolidation range. The rebound that occurred last week came after Jerome Powell, president of the Fed, said that it is time to adjust monetary policy and strengthen the labor market. In this sense, as BitcoinDynamic reported, The market is shown to be influenced by macroeconomic data.
Powell's remarks are expected to lead to a rate cut in the United States starting in September when the northern hemisphere's autumn season begins, a season in which markets usually rise. With this scenario, it is possible for bitcoin to repeat the upward trend it showed in the final months of last year.