Key facts: There is still a «period of greater laterality» for bitcoin. Several market analysts maintain that the last quarter of the year will be bullish for bitcoin. Beyond the volatility that bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing, it remains in a wide lateral range since March, five months ago. This indicates that, for the moment, the halving that occurred in April has not generated a bullish impact (as many expected it to happen). At the time of this publication, as can be seen in the BitcoinDynamic Calculator, bitcoin is trading for around $61,000 on the main exchanges. The following graph, provided by TradingView, shows the price of BTC so far in 2024. The lateralization that it entered since March and has not yet been able to exit is evident:
Bitcoin price so far in 2024. Source: TradingView. But this sideways movement, which may be going on too long for many people's taste, could soon change. A report from the market analysis company, Alfa Bitcoin, highlights that, in previous cycles, The bullish effect started around 150 days after the halving. He then warns that, if this pattern shown in the following graph continues, «an impact on the price could be anticipated in the next 30 days.» This is when this duration would be fulfilled.
Bitcoin price performance since each halving. Source: Alfa Bitcoin. The halving is the event that automatically halves the issuance of bitcoin every four years. In this way, this phenomenon reduces the issuance of bitcoin, facilitating the rise in the price of the currency due to demand. For this reason, it works as one of the bullish fundamentals of the market that attract investors. Currently, the bitcoin cycle measured from its lows is in the average of the returns of the last bull markets, as seen below. In addition, it is shown in half the duration that they have experienced. This suggests that it still has room to rise, if it follows the trend it has historically had.
Bitcoin price movement from the lows of each cycle. Source: Alfa Bitcoin. “According to this hypothesis, the bitcoin cycle could have a period of greater lateral movement before continuing its rise,” states the Alfa Bitcoin report. The analyst company also distinguishes that global liquidity increases at high rates, as shown in the following graph. It indicates that this has historically been a bullish factor for risk assets such as stocks and bitcoin.
Global liquidity measured every 7 days. Source: Alfa Bitcoin.
Macroeconomic issues also impact BTC: “As central banks print money, devaluing their currencies, capital seeks refuge in alternative monetary assets such as bitcoin” Alfa Bitcoin, analysis platform and tools for investing in bitcoin.
Stock market trend may be key for bitcoin
Amid these projections, the global MSCI World index, representative of the behavior of the world stock market, remains on an upward trend. This is despite the recent setback they experienced with the surprise rise in interest rates in Japan and fears of recession in the United States. “As long as the index remains above this level, the predominant trend remains bullish,” Alfa Bitcoin emphasized about this metric that It is important for bitcoin as it is often correlated with the stock market.. In this sense, the following macroeconomic data seem relevant for bitcoin to repeat the bullish trend that it usually has 150 days after the halving. Different actors, such as the Coinbase exchange, maintain that the expected reduction in interest rates in the United States for September can push this scenario. As BitcoinDynamic reported, this is because bond yields decrease and motivate rotation to risk markets. In addition, Capriole Investments has warned that Bitcoin's uptrend may pick up as the northern hemisphere summer ends in September, the season in which markets usually fall.