Key facts: 2 indicators show the bullish trend could be close to over for bitcoin. The combination of technical and fundamental analysis helps make good investment decisions. Many traders and investors wonder if the 'bull run' that led bitcoin (BTC) to new all-time highs and many cryptocurrencies, such as ether (ETH), to have significant price increases so far in 2024, is over. since March, the digital currency created by Satoshi Nakamoto entered a zone of lateralization which keeps it oscillating between 65,000 and 72,000 dollars. Doubts also fall on the Ethereum cryptocurrency, the network specialized in smart contracts created by Vitalik Buterin. Although its price has risen considerably, it cannot strongly overcome the psychological barrier of $4,000 and remains in the lateralization zone. The following graphs, provided by the TradingView platform, allow you to observe BTC and ETH prices with daily candles since mid-March 2024.
Prices of BTC (above) and ETH (below) with 4-hour candles. Source: TradingView. From the point of view of fundamental analysis There are numerous reasons to think that the bullish trend for cryptocurrencies will continue through the remaining months of 2024. and, perhaps, also during part of 2025. BitcoinDynamic published an article yesterday, June 2, under the title «Signs: bitcoin is giving new purchasing opportunities.» There they explain the Fundamental factors that would cause BTC to reach new heights in the coming months. Due to carryover effect and also for its own reasons (mainly the approval of ETFs in the United States a couple of weeks ago), something similar can be expected for ETH. Among the bullish factors detailed therein are the spot ETFs approved in the United States, the «halving effect», macroeconomic reasons and the technological development of Bitcoin that is constantly advancing. The sum of all this could give, as a consequence, a “super bull cycle” for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies that exceeds all expectations. In addition to all this, there are indicators available on analysis platforms such as TradingView, which allow you to confirm that the bullish trend is currently active. There are dozens of indicators with which this could become evident. On this occasion four trend indicators will be analyzed.
Supertrend Indicator
Supertrend is an indicator that, based on the analysis of multiple factors, seeks to determine if the trend of a financial asset is bullish or bearish. The TradingView website explains:
«The Supertrend is a trend indicator based on the Average True Range (ATR). Its single line calculation combines trend and volatility detection. It can be used to anticipate changes in trend direction and to place stop losses. The Supertrend indicator was created by Olivier Seban. TradingView, financial asset analysis platform
The following graph shows how the Supertrend has marked buy signals (still valid) for the two crypto assets analyzed here:
Charts of bitcoin (above) and ether (below) with daily candles and the Supertrend indicator activated. Green areas are bullish zones and red areas are bearish. Source: TradingView. In the case of bitcoin, the Supertrend will continue to consider that the asset is in an uptrend as long as the daily candles close above $62,400. In the case of ether, the bullish trend would be nullified if a daily candle closes below $3,360. Moving average crossovers are a popular tool in technical analysis to identify changes in the trend of a financial asset. This method involves the use of two moving averages from different periods: a short-term moving average (for example, 10 periods) and a long-term moving average (for example, 20 periods). When the short-term moving average crosses above the long-term moving average, it can be considered that the financial asset is entering an uptrend. On the contrary, when the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term moving average, it can be thought that a bearish trend has entered. These crossovers are useful because provide clear and objective signals about possible changes in market direction, allowing investors and traders to make decisions about buying or selling assets. Currently, for both bitcoin and ether, The combination of two of the most used moving averages (10 and 20 days) shows that the trend is bullishas can be seen in the following TradingView chart:
Bitcoin (above) and ether (below) prices with daily candles and 10-period (green) and 20-period (red) moving averages. Source: TradingView. The objective of showing such a broad graph, from October 2023, is for the reader to observe that This indicator —although it is not infallible— is very successful in detecting the BTC trend. This is particularly evident in the movements that, between February and March, took bitcoin to its all-time high of $74,700 and ether above $4,000. Currently, although the trend is clearly bullish for ETH (according to this indicator) a bearish crossover could be about to occur in the case of bitcoin. The close of the daily candle today, June 3, could determine whether or not there is a trend change for BTC. If there is a change in trend, do not be alarmed. First of all, bearish corrections are normal and even healthy within an bullish macrotrend. Besides, A single indicator cannot be used to definitively define a trend.. This is stipulated based on the analysis of numerous combined factors.
Aroon
This is not one of the best known indicators, but, as can be seen in the image that accompanies this section of the article, Aroon has a remarkable effectiveness rate.
It has served, in the past, to anticipate large bullish movements, both in BTC and ETH, giving good entry and profit-taking signals. Also, like all indicators, it has given false signals (which is why it is not convenient to carry out trading or investments based on a single indicator but rather to develop a strategy that includes various metrics). About the Aroon indicator, the TradingView website explains:
«The Aroon indicator is a technical indicator that is used to identify trend changes in the price of an asset, as well as the strength of that trend. In essence, the indicator measures the time between highs and lows over a period of time. The idea is that strong uptrends will periodically make new highs and strong downtrends will periodically make new lows. The indicator indicates when this happens and when it does not. TradingView, financial asset analysis platform.
This is what the Aroon indicator currently looks like on TradingView. When the orange line is above the blue line it means that there is an uptrend detected. On the other hand, when the blue line is above the orange line, it means that a bearish trend is detected.
Prices of bitcoin (above) and ether (below) with daily candles and the Aroon indicator activated. Source: TradingView. Something interesting is that both the Aroon indicator and the simple crossing of moving averages show that bullish trend could be ending for bitcoin. Could it perhaps be the start of an altcoin season? This makes sense if you consider that in a few days spot ether ETFs would begin to be traded in the United States.
Conclusion
As can be seen, the three indicators observed here confirm the bullish trend for the two main crypto assets in the market. Two of them give indications that this trend could be about to end and another is more «permissive», considering that the bullish trend continues even if these assets fell a little more in price. It will be key, then, to analyze how bitcoin continues to behave in the coming hours and days to evaluate how the trend continues. Every investor should always remember that there is no magic or infallible indicator. But, the combination of several of them can help determine possible entry and take profit or stop loss zones. To all this it is worth adding that The combination of technical indicators with fundamental analysis is of utmost importance to make an intelligent investment and thus increase the chances of making a profit.