The growth in Spain of credit to economic activities stopped being negative in the third quarter of 2024 (in that period it grew by 0.4% year-on-year), and this expansion already reaches 1.6% in the second quarter of this year. This is a moderate pace compared to activity and investment, but already clearly in positive territory. Behind this evolution in credit are interest rates that began to decline after the correction of the inflationary excesses of the 2022-2023 period, a ratio of total debt to GDP lower than the eurozone average (62.5% compared to 69.9%) after a process of intense deleveraging (of more than 50 percentage points of GDP) in the last 15 years and the recovery of private investment. The only sector that still shows negative rates is the primary sector (the latest data shows a year-on-year drop of 2.3%), although subsectors with declines persist. Its evolution is detailed below. Credit to the services sector, which accounts for 73% of credit to companies, has shown positive growth since the second quarter of 2024 (0.7%) and has reached 2% a year later. This progress is supported by hospitality activity (3.3% year-on-year), real estate development (5.0%), and other services, which, although slowing down, maintain robust growth of 6.1%. Among the subsectors that still show a decline, the following stand out: trade and repairs, transportation and storage, and financial intermediation services. Credit to industry, which represents 19% of credit to companies, abandoned negative rates at the beginning of 2025 and reached 1.5% in the second quarter of this year. This growth is supported by the chemical industry (13.7%), metallurgy and machinery (0.6%), transport materials (14.7%), and energy production and distribution (5.6%). On the negative side, the extractive industries, beverages, food and tobacco, oil refining, glass, ceramics and construction materials, and other manufacturing. Credit to activities related to the construction sector, which represent 4.5% of the total to companies, registers a timid growth of 0.3% in an interannual rate between April and June of this year, contributed by the subsectors of buildings and singular works (1.5%), and installation and finishing of buildings and works (5.8%). In the opposite direction, public works and the preparation of works show declines. For the next year, credit to companies is expected to show growth in line with Spain’s nominal economic activity despite the expected slowdown, and everything will depend on the evolution of investment that requires less uncertainty, specialized labor, and also more flexible regulation. José Félix Izquierdo, BBVA Research.
