Our societies age at an unprecedented pace. In Spain, as in much of the developed world, the proportion of over 65 years grows relentlessly, generating a silent but deep transformation whose consequences we hardly begin to glimpse. The question is no longer whether this phenomenon will affect our economy, but how severe the impact will be and if we are prepared to face it. The recent publication of a key study and the continuous and forceful Airof warning have put on the table what many economists have been pointing out: we are facing a structural threat to our well -being model that transcends, with much, the debate on pensions. The first alarm signal appears in the labor market. The economic model of the twentieth century was based on an abundant working population that maintained a lower proportion of dependents. This equation is now invested critically. The dependency rate – number of workers for each pensioner – not only presses our pension system to limits that we are not able to glimpse, but also reduces our per capita productive capacity, undermining the potential growth of the economy. But the true watchmaking bomb, revealed by recent investigations in the United States, is that aging significantly slows productivity growth. It is not just that we have fewer workers; It is that innovation decreases, the creation of companies contracts and the transfer of knowledge between generations is interrupted. This effect, less visible but more pernicious, could condemn the next generations to a secular stagnation than it would be extremely difficult to escape. Let us refer to this the pressure on public finances, which is perhaps the issue on which the debate is more intense. Thus, the increase in pension spending coincides and therefore adds with an exponential increase in the health costs associated with the highest prevalence of chronic diseases and long -term care. A double challenge that we must finance with a diminishing base basis, while the work casualties will multiply, already does, by the aging of the working force. Without a doubt, a perfect storm for our welfare state. Are we for all this condemned to an inevitable decline? It should not necessarily be so, but what is no less true is that to avoid it, brave structural changes will be required that our politicians, attentive to short -term electoral cycles, have systematically prevents addressing. Therefore, it is evident that we need a comprehensive reform of our pension system that guarantees its sustainability and intergenerational equity – something that the last reform not only did not achieve, but everything indicates that it worsened, increasing the potential load of the system on future generations. In this reform, although some steps are already being advanced, we must rethink the very concept of retirement, making it more fluid, less rigid, eliminating discouragement to work beyond an arbitrary age and adapting the positions, although in a discriminated way, to the new realities. But it is not only retirement. In addition, preventive health must become a national priority, not only for humanity but also by economic pragmatism. Each euro invested in prevention will save dozens in future treatments, relieving pressure on a health system that is already the limit faces a perspective for nothing encouraging. Companies, meanwhile, must abandon ageist prejudices and recognize the value of experience, adapting job environments and promoting intergenerational knowledge transfer. It is not charity; It is competitive survival in a radically transformed labor market where the accumulated knowledge of years of experience is an intangible that must continue to generate returns. And yes, we need a rational and planned immigration policy as part of a comprehensive demographic strategy that recognizes unavoidable reality: we need new taxpayers. Population aging is the biggest test that our economy will face in the coming decades. Poorly managed, it could lead to an unprecedented intergenerational conflict, with young people inheriting unpayable debts and collapsed systems. Well approached, it could promote a revolution in productivity, innovation and social organization. The choice is ours, but time is exhausted. Future generations will judge us for the decisions we make today. And the story is not usually benevolent with whom, seeing the storm coming, they decided not to act while they could still.Manuel Alejandro Hidalgo He is a professor at Pablo de Olavide and Economist at ESADEECPOL.
