Key Facts: “The next natural target is $100,000,” says Hashdex. The bullish cycle would extend at least until 2025. Hashdex, a Brazilian asset management company, has glimpsed the current irregular situation of the price of bitcoin (BTC) compared to its previous bullish cycles and what its next step may be. In a report, he notes that “bitcoin is defying historical cycles, reaching another all-time high well before the next halving in April 2024.” Since yesterday, It is trading around $72,000. (USD), its record level in history. The Brazilian company distinguishes that this is different from all previous cycles in which the currency needed at least six months after the halving to reach new price records, as seen below.
In orange you can see the price of bitcoin and in yellow the halvings that have occurred so far. Source: TradingView. It should be noted that the halving is the event that reduces the issuance of bitcoin by half every approximately four years. This event, which limits supply, will occur until 21 million units of the currency are mined. Then your supply will no longer increase. Hashdex attributes the current rally largely to the long-awaited arrival two months ago of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. “These instruments caused a significant demand shock, injecting optimism into the market and triggering a bullish rally sooner than expected,” he says. “Initial inflows into these ETFs have exceeded even the most optimistic expectations and we believe this is just the beginning,” he says. He believes so since he maintains that many professionals and institutions continue to observe even without investing, prepared to enter the market as confidence and regulatory clarity strengthen. Furthermore, he explains that these products offer a safe and regulated entry point for institutional investors who were previously hesitant to participate. It should be noted that these ETFs purchase bitcoin on demand to back up the funds. That is why they pressure the price of the currency upwards, as the following graph shows.
In green you can see the amount of bitcoin in the ETFs and in yellow the price of the currency. Source: Hashdex. For all this, the company warns that Several factors are converging to create a “perfect storm” for the price of bitcoin. Besides ETFs, another catalyst he sees is that global markets are experiencing positive macroeconomic winds. “The United States and other developed economies are expected to ease monetary policy in the coming months, a historically favorable development for risk assets, including bitcoin and other crypto assets,” he says. In anticipation of this, stocks, gold and BTC have been on the rise, as shown below.
Different markets have been on the rise so far in 2024. Source: Hashdex. In addition to this, he maintains that “the halving adds one more element to the scenario.” Remember that historically this event has coincided with significant increases in the price of bitcoin.
“When combined, favorable macroeconomic contexts, increased demand for ETFs and the April halving have the potential to further intensify this bull market” Hashdex, issuing company of bitcoin and cryptocurrency investment funds.
What price could bitcoin reach in this bullish cycle?
The company concludes that, as the aforementioned conditions converge in the coming months, “the near-term outlook for bitcoin and other crypto assets remains very strong.” Having crossed the price of USD 70,000, “the next natural target is USD 100,000”, for Hashdex. This may be due to the market's attempt to look for that psychologically strong number because it is round and implies another figure. Hashdex also points out that, if the rise of the last bullish cycle is repeated, we could see bitcoin testing the $200,000 to $300,000 range throughout 2025. Given this, he concludes by saying that “his investment thesis for bitcoin as an emerging digital store of value remains stronger than ever.” In tune with this, Fausto Botelho, a Brazilian technical analyst with more than 40 years of experience, has also projected bitcoin at USD 200,000. In his case, he clarified that this is “in a conservative scenario.” If it replicates the rise of 2017 or 2013, then its price could climb to USD 1 or 2 million, he has detailed as BitcoinDynamic shared.