He oil it doesn’t stop going up. This Tuesday it continues its climb (+3%) and Brent is now trading at $86, while West Texas is at $80. The tensions in the Middle East continue to increase, and in the last few hours there has been a new crossover attacks between the US and Iran. As if this were not enough, the American president, donald trumphas threatened to impose a tariff on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and with reestablishing the blockade of Iranian ports, which has triggered fears of a supply interruption. Trump stated this Monday that the United States will impose tariffs on ships that transit the Strait of Hormuz, charging «a 20% rate on all transported cargo«, after describing the United States as the «guardian» of this vital oil transit route. This was noted in a publication on the Truth Social social network, in which he also took the opportunity to announce that Washington will restore the blockade of Iranian ports near the straitfurther intensifying the conflict with Tehran. US Central Command (CCC) later reported that the lockdown would go into effect at 4 pm ET on Tuesday. The Strait of Hormuz, Trump stressed, «is open and will remain open, with or without Iran,» and all countries except Iran «will have fair and open use» of it. «From now on, the United States will be known as ‘The Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz'»said the Republican. «But as such, and as a matter of justice, you will be reimbursed, at a rate of 20% of all cargo transported, for each and every one of the costs necessary to provide security to this highly volatile area of the world,» he added. For his part, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated in an X publication on Monday afternoon that Iran, not the United States, controls the strait and deserves to be compensated for this service. «20% is, of course, too much. We will be fair,» Araghchi wrote. Following this exchange of statements, the United Nations International Maritime Organization, which regulates maritime transport, declared that firmly opposes the collection of fees for passage through straits used for international navigation. «There is no legal basis to introduce mandatory tolls simply for traveling through a strait,» he said in a statement. All of this has increased the risk of a military escalation, as Citi strategists warned in a note this Tuesday. «It has also raised the possibility that the Iranian regime will withdraw from the memorandum of understanding until after the US midterm elections, a scenario that would likely result in higher oil prices for an extended period«, said the bank. The problem is not trivial, and it is that Approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil supply transited the Strait of Hormuz. before the United States and Israel attacked Iran. Maritime traffic had begun to recover after the provisional agreement reached by Washington and Tehran last June, although the attacks in recent days have once again slowed ship transit.
CROSS ATTACKS
Besides all that, The US and Iran continue to exchange attacks. Washington has announced that it has completed its strikes against Iranian military targets for the third consecutive night. The mission, lasting five hours, has impacted military targets throughout Iran and has further weakened Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping, according to a statement from US Central Command. And the US has attacked Iranian coastal defense systems, missile and drone sites, and maritime capabilities. For its part, Tehran has responded attacking two Emirati oil tankers from one side in the Strait of Hormuz. Specifically, the Ministry of Defense of the United Arab Emirates confirmed this Tuesday that the national tankers Mombasa and Al Bahiyah were attacked with two Iranian cruise missiles in the southern channel of the strait, within Omani territorial waters. On the other hand, Iran has attacked US military sites in Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
«We are once again in a zone of tension»says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. «Tensions in the Middle East are worsening: the United States has attacked Iran, Iran has attacked neighboring Gulf countries, the US blockade of Iranian ships has returned to the Strait of Hormuz, and this time Washington is also demanding a 20% tariff on all cargo transiting through the strait. This is bad news,» the expert points out. Above all, he comments, because said tariff «would raise transit costs far beyond the roughly $2 million per ship that Iran had proposed to charge.» «If we do the math, a fully loaded tanker is worth between $150 and $170 million, which means a 20% tariff would amount to about $30-34 million per cargo,» Ozkardeskaya notes. And leaving aside the fact that such a move would probably be illegal under international law, «I would simply say that some American leaders seem to be losing their minds«, he adds. The Swissquote strategist also points out that Rising oil prices are driving global inflation expectations again. And «at this point, you don’t need to be an economics expert to know that higher inflation requires higher interest rates.» That is precisely why expectations about Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rates have risen, and there is now a 77% probability of at least a 25 basis point hike at the September meeting.
