The increase in fuel prices due to the war in the Middle East has made UK inflation increased three tenths in Marchuntil the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.3%coinciding with forecasts, according to figures provided by the British Office of National Statistics (ONS). In this way, inflation registers in the third month of the year its highest reading so far in 2026. «Inflation increased in March, largely due to the increase in fuel prices, which registered their largest increase in more than three years«, highlighted the ONS chief economist, Grant Fitzner, who added that «the monthly cost of both raw materials for companies and products leaving factories increased substantially, due to the rise in crude oil and petrol prices.» In addition, «airline ticket prices were another factor driving the rise, along with the increase in food prices. He The only factor that significantly offset this increase was clothing.whose prices rose less than at this same time last year,» he noted. In particular, prices in the transportation sector increased by 4.7%, compared to 2.4% in February, being the highest annual rate since December 2022. The The greatest increase was observed in motor fuels, which became more expensive by 4.9% in the third month of the year, compared to a drop of 4.6% in February. The figure was the highest recorded since January 2023. For its part, in housing and home services, prices rose by 4.3%, one tenth higher than the previous month, due to the significant increases in diesel for home heating. He cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 3.7%four tenths more. Meanwhile, clothing and footwear prices decreased 0.8%, compared to an increase of 0.9% in February. Regarding the rate of core inflationthat is, the one that excludes the effect of energy and fresh food, is placed in March in 3.1%, one tenth below. BANK OF ENGLAND OUTSTANDING «The recent rise in headline CPI in the UK tells us virtually nothing about the magnitude and duration of the coming wave of inflation,» comments ING analysts, who believe that «the scant amount of survey data available so far suggests there is little reason to be alarmed about inflation.» In his opinion, «as long as inflation does not significantly exceed 4%, a level that the Bank of England (BoE) has identified as more likely to trigger a persistent period of inflationary pressure, we believe it will prefer to keep interest rates unchanged this year.» The British body will hold its next meeting on April 30. According to Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, «the specter of stagflation will haunt members of the Monetary Policy Committee as they try to maintain balance. If they do not raise interest rates and inflation consolidates, they will be accused of not having acted quickly enough, but if the United Kingdom moves dangerously close to recession in the second half of the year, they will face criticism for not having done enough to stimulate an economy that is struggling to remain stable.» For her part, Emma Wall, chief investment strategist at Hargreaves Lansdown, believes that «it is highly unlikely that a single inflation data will be enough to convince policymakers to change the BoE base rate next week, although market analysts will be very attentive to see if the vote is divided, as members of the Monetary Policy Committee are likely to be divided.» «Inflation is likely to remain elevated in April as well, and markets are already pricing in a rate hike later this year. However, our view is that rates will remain stable throughout the conflict, resuming the planned cut cycle later than forecast just a couple of months ago, but with a view to reaching a neutral level next year,» he says.
