Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion and Probable each exceeded $1 billion in volume. The sector generated more than $11 million in on-chain commissions. In January 2026, cryptocurrency-based prediction markets, with prominent platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, recorded a transaction volume of over $12 billion. This figure marks a new record and shows a clear trend towards the consolidation of a segment that attracts millions of users interested in forecasting events and monetizing their predictions. The analysis of this growth is based on data collected by Gate Research in Dune Analytics, which tracks on-chain transactions from more than ten prediction protocols. These analyzes detail daily volumes, open interest and commissions generated. The seven-day average volume in Kalshi, for example, reached $139 million, while Polymarket recorded 130 million. Both figures exceed the averages of previous months, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 121% on some of these platforms. Opinion, with more than 100 million dollars, and Probable, with 99 million, also showed significant performance. These four platforms concentrate 96.22% of the sector’s weekly volume, which together accumulates more than $1 billion in open interest.
The jump from less than $100 million in 2024 to more than $12 billion in January 2026 illustrates the explosive growth of the sector. Source: Dune Analytics / Gate Research. Growth is observed in monthly and quarterly variations. For example, Probable saw a 673% month-over-month increase. While Opinion grew 167% quarter over quarter; and Kalshi 121% in the same period. All this record volume suggests that digital assets are expanding their role beyond traditional investing. The growth consolidates betting as a fundamental component of the ecosystem, which also generates significant commissions. This development indicates that cryptocurrencies are evolving from a volatile niche to a practical tool for predicting events and monetizing the future, overcoming the perception that their value lies solely in trading.
An integration with digital financial infrastructure
The expansion of these prediction markets is a trend observed since the end of 2024. At that time, it was highlighted that these platforms were evolving to become an integrated layer of the digital financial infrastructure. Its incorporation into relevant exchanges, cryptocurrency wallets and financial media, as a source of real-time probability data, underlines this integration. Concrete examples of this integration include announcements of collaboration between Coinbase and Kalshi, in addition to the position of Robinhood – which lists this type of products as its fastest growing line – the inclusion in the Phantom wallet for its 20 million users and alliances with news networks such as CNBC.
Current evidence also shows a diversification of bets. Now, cryptoassets are used to forecast future events in areas such as sports, macroeconomics and corporate results. Geographically, the phenomenon has transcended its origins in the United States and Europe, spreading to Asia and Latin America, driven by new digital trade routes facilitated by cryptoassets.
Volume distribution in prediction markets during January 2026. Kalshi leads in regulated volume, followed by Polymarket in global reach. Source: Dune Analytics.
Truly global growth?
Despite their global expansion, the accessibility of these prediction markets it is not uniform. Although they bring together users from various parts of the world, they operate with significant geographic restrictions that limit access in certain countries or regions. The availability of platforms varies depending on local regulations, international sanctions and licensing requirements, preventing complete uniformity in their scope. However, global expansion has facilitated access to a wider audience in permitted regions. Daily volumes reached peaks of $814 million on January 21surpassing previous records and attracting professional traders who previously perceived the sector as too volatile. The Opinion platform, in particular, captured 54% of the rates market, specializing in bets on events such as Federal Reserve announcements. This underlines the sector’s ability to adapt to legal challenges and its evolution towards business models that attract financial institutions. The notable performance of prediction markets during the elections, according to a report by BitcoinDynamic in November 2024, led to questioning the relevance of traditional surveys. These markets fulfill a double function. On the one hand, they offer a means of direct participation to the public and, at the same time, They generate valuable information by aggregating opinions, functioning as thermometers of collective perception.
For a large part of the population, these markets represent an accessible way to use digital assets, providing a new dynamic to the interaction with information and finance. A more recent report published by the Keyrock platform demonstrates precisely what is happening. Point out the following:
Prediction markets are becoming one of the first native cryptocurrency products to achieve mainstream relevance. They transform uncertainty into real-time prices, replacing static forecasts, surveys and narratives with probabilities that update in real time. In this way, they function as information markets that bring dispersed knowledge to light and make collective expectations measurable and actionable. Keyrock
The record reached in January is, therefore, a clear indicator of the vitality of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, that is increasingly integrated into aspects of daily life. This expansion invites a considered evaluation of both its inherent risks and the new opportunities it presents.
