Housing will be a national emergency again this year. The residential market forecasts for 2026 lead to discouragement by predicting new price increases that, although more moderate, will continue to strangle access to a home and aggravate the great crisis. Crazy and uncontrolled are two convenient adjectives for a market that has reached maximum prices in 2025. The Fotocasa and Idealista portals calculate that the increase has exceeded 15% annually. “Such a strong increase has never been detected in such a short time,” says María Matos, Director of Studies and spokesperson for Fotocasa, which estimates the average price of a house in Spain at 226,000 euros (data from November). The market has been chaining three years of increases at a pace reminiscent of the past. CaixaBank Research admits that signs of overvaluation are beginning to be detected, but the current context differs from that before the bubble burst: «There is no excess supply, but rather a serious housing deficit and that is what mainly explains the pressure on prices; and the financial situation of families, the construction and development sector, and the financial system is solid.» The truth is that the effort that citizens make to buy is constantly increasing. Many of them are at their limit. “There is still a lot of demand in the market, but there is not much demand that is solvent in banking criteria,” says José García Montalvo, professor of Economics at the Pompeu Fabra University and specialist in the real estate sector. A little context of what has happened helps to understand what, predictably, is going to come. The year 2025 has been historic in sales, the best since 2007, since more than 700,000 operations will be signed, which will be around 10% more than the previous year. Purchasing now has more incentives than renting and that has been noticeable for much of the year. Now, in the last months of 2025, sales have slowed down due to high prices, a shortage of supply and the end of the era of very cheap mortgages. “It seems difficult for these rates to be maintained in the coming quarters,” predicts Francisco Iñareta, Idealista spokesperson. García Montalvo refines: “2026 will have a reduction in transactions.” How this will affect prices is the million-dollar question. The increase depends on the source consulted, the type of house analyzed and the city. But, in general, it loses strength. Economist García Montalvo estimates that growth will be “much more moderate, from 4% to 7%.” Although, logically, these forecasts are conditioned by the macroeconomic future: “If there were a strong correction in the markets, which is increasingly likely, then these perspectives would be too optimistic.” Raymond Torres, director of Economic Situation at Funcas, speaks of a turning point in the housing market. «It will result in a moderation in the growth of the purchase price. We move to growth rates of between 5% and 6%, consistent with the growth of household disposable income.» The factors that support its forecast are three: the economy and the population will grow less, easing the pressure of demand; Construction will continue to expand, and the bubble of expectations (purchase to rent) of the last three years should deflate because lower profitability limits its attractiveness as an investment asset. The data is increased by economist Gonzalo Bernardos, who speaks of increases of 8%. According to the appraiser Tinsa, new and used housing has become more expensive by 13% annually in the last quarter, the highest since 2006. «In 2026, a maintenance of the high volumes of sales is expected (with increases between 0% and 3%) and between a 5% and a 10% increase in prices,» predicts Cristina Arias, director of the Tinsa by Accumin Studies Service. And he continues: «Although construction has been getting more dynamic, the shortage of supply would persist, keeping price tensions at somewhat more moderate levels than the current ones, but still with the potential to continue aggravating the difficulty of access to housing, especially in employment centers and tourist centers.» And in new housing, the Appraisal Society states that the price has risen 8.9% at the end of 2025 and has reached 3,300 euros per square meter, the highest rate in the last 19 years. The appraiser estimates that it will maintain its upward trend during the first quarter of 2026 with an expected year-on-year increase of 8.9%. In any case, the increases in prices multiply those registered in family income. “There are families that are beginning to withdraw from the market, since, despite the fact that the financing conditions are accessible, they require providing a volume of savings that is not within the reach of many of them,” says Iñareta. However, «the difference between supply and demand is so marked that the withdrawal of these pockets of demand will not bring with it a drop in prices, although it could moderate their growth.» That is the root of the problem. The lack of supply will continue to put pressure because construction has been reactivated, but it is far from compensating for the accumulated deficit. «The homes completed between 2021 and 2025 will be around 520,000 units, a number much lower than the almost 1,120,000 homes that will be created in the five years. At the current construction rate, this gap will take a long time to close,» they indicate in BBVA Research. The promoters and builders’ association also believes that everything done so far is not enough. “According to data from the INE, in the next four years the creation of 330,000 new homes per year is expected, but new construction visas stood at 128,000 in 2024 (100,327 until September 2025, latest available data), so the pace of construction remains clearly insufficient,” they indicate in APCEspaña. Gonzalo Bernardos is optimistic about the progress of construction. It speaks of a number of housing starts this year of 200,000 units, which would mean an increase of around 40%.
Mortgages and rents
Everything indicates that there were more than 500,000 mortgages signed last year, compared to 425,000 in 2024, which “confirms that the market has normalized after the years of high rates,” says Ricard Garriga, CEO of the Trioteca mortgage platform. Now, since January 2025 the average price has risen 10%, anticipating somewhat higher rates. «By 2026 I expect a moderate rate increase, with fixed mortgages between 2.5% and 2.75%. This could slow the pace somewhat, but there will be no sudden correction,» according to Garriga. The rental market, despite the housing law and rent caps in some cities, is the closest thing to a runaway horse. The supply crisis is brutal and the price does not let up. «It will close 2025 again at historical highs, above 14 euros per square meter, and with an increase of close to 7% year-on-year. In 2026, growth could remain around that percentage,» according to Fotocasa, which calculates the average rent in Spain at 1,128 euros per month. New contracts will go up more. In addition, tenants will have to continue proving themselves to be the best candidate and fight like hell for a house. Economist Ignacio Ezquiaga speaks of a duality of supply that is going to become more acute this year. The highlight will be the 70,000 new affordable or sheltered rental homes approved. “There will be strong growth in supply, following the trend that began in 2024 and 2025, with prices 40% lower than those on the free market due to the application of the 30% affordability rule.” Regarding private rentals, he explains, there will be a moderation in prices due to the application of regulation in stressed areas and a reduction in turnover. The price increase will be in line with the CPI.”
