Deutsche Bank has reaffirmed his recommendation to 'sell' about Redeia after Publication of the regulatory draft for the 2026-2031 period by the Spanish regulator. In your latest report, The German firm has cut its target price from 16 euros to 15 euroswhich represents an adjustment of 6.2%, after qualifying regulatory proposals such as «Disappointing.»
The bank had already considered the proposed profitability (6.46% nominal before tax) insufficient, but now warns new negative elements that aggravate its valuation. Among them, he stands out A 13% reduction in operation and maintenance items (O&M)which is equivalent to a cut of 60 million euros. Deutsche Bank previously anticipated stable figures in this section, so this adjustment significantly changes its forecasts. Another aspect that plays against the report is that The margin to obtain returns due to investment efficiency (capex) is drastically reduced. «Unless the expense is well below the budget, it will be very difficult to overcome objectives,» explain the analysts, which is a blow to one of the areas in which Redeia used to highlight. In addition, the allowed income figures are also disappointing. Although there are certain doubts about the form of presentation, the increase planned for the first year It would be only about 80 millionwell below the 130 million previously assumed by Deutsche Bank, mainly due to the lower costs allowed. In a mixed aspect, the regulator proposes to remunerate large projects under construction (WIP), although only at the cost of debt, not at the cost of capital, and leaves small projects out of this compensation. As a positive note, Redeia will be able to recover the financing cost two years after the commissioning of singular projectswhich could improve punctual results after entry into operation. Given this new scenario, Deutsche Bank has cut its benefit estimates for 2026 to 560 million euros6% below the consensus of 'Bloomberg' (600 million). The action quotes more than 17 times estimated benefits by 2026, a multiple they consider raised in front of their comparable ones. In terms of assessment, the firm uses a sum of the sum of parts (SOTP), valuing the regulated business with a 4% premium on the value of the regulated assets (RAB) of 2025 and the non -regulated assets at 10.5 times EV/EBITDA. Although he acknowledges that Regulatory proposals could improve before its final versionfor now the base scenario remains unfavorable, so it maintains its sale recommendation.
