The recent review of the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB) shows the complexity of managing interest and inflation rates in a context of geopolitical fragmentation, technological disruption and regulatory pressure. The ECB reaffirms its symmetrical inflation objective of 2% in the medium term, but introduces nuances that anticipate a more flexible reaction function. The monetary authority reserves to act strongly depending on the magnitude and nature of the clashes, which will imply greater volatility in interest rates and a more frequent calibration of the «neutral» type. In addition, it fuses its old scheme of two pillars (economic-ministry) in a single framework that incorporates climatic and financial stability risks. This strategic rethinking coincides with a moment with the inflation return to 2% (after the levels of 10% of the end of 2022) and a GDP growth that, despite the global uncertainty, maintains some resistance capacity (progress of 1%) with a solid labor market and relatively robust private finances. The monetary stimulus initiated almost a year ago and for an accumulated amount of 200 basic points (which would have a last cut) should be an additional favorable factor, although partially compensated by the appreciation of the euro against the dollar. In parallel, the ECB perceives a latent threat to the autonomy of its monetary policy in the rise of cryptoactive and, especially, of the stablecoins. Although today they are a limited risk for the financial stability of the euro zone, Lagarde warns of the potential effects of a migration of deposits towards private digital currencies outside the regulation. The majority of stablocoins are called in dollars, which amplifies the structural dependence of the European financial system with respect to the US. And although the new community regulations (MICA) reinforce protection for European investors, global regulatory fragmentation leaves open gaps that can compromise the transmission of monetary policy. The ECB insists on accelerating the route map of the digital euro. Beyond modernizing the retail payment system and offering a safe alternative to extra -community platforms, the project aspires to reinforce the monetary sovereignty of the Eurozone in a context of technological and geostrategic competition increasingly intense. Christine Lagarde seems determined to leave as a legacy the launch of the new digital currency before the end of its mandate in 2027. In short, the review of the ECB strategy shows the will to adapt to a more uncertain and fragmented world, but it makes it clear that the independence and effective of money. David Cano and Javier Pino are professors of AFI Global Education.
