He oil It has turned this Monday and has risen 1.5%, after the initial falls, after the organization of oil exporting countries (OPEC) and its allies have agreed at their meeting this weekend to raise production more than expected. Specifically, a subgroup of eight countries in the oil alliance OPEC+ will raise production in 548,000 barrels newspapers in August. This subgroup, composed of important producers such as Saudi Russia and Arabiatogether with Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman and United Arab Emirateshas decided to raise production more than expected, and that is that the market predicted that production increased only in 411,000 barrels Diaries. According to Stephen Innes, director of Spi Asset Management, the positioning of the OPEC+ «reflects an unstable balance: the increase in production was announced clearly, but the question now is whether that impulse will cause a strong excess of oil supply«, he says. In his opinion, for now» he feels less like one flood and more as the beginning of a slow escape «, hence the oil falls are not too pronounced. In a statement, the OPEC Secretariat attributed the decision adopted this Saturday by the countries to» a stable global economic perspective and the current solid foundations of the market, as reflected in the low oil inventories. » These eight producers have been implementing time Two sets of volunteer production cuts Apart from the formal policy of OPEC+. On the one hand, a cut of 1.66 million barrels per day, which remains in force until the end of next year. And on the other, these countries decided to reduce their production by 2.2 million additional daily barrels, which maintained until the end of the first quarter. These countries, in addition, initially proposed to increase their production by 137,000 barrels per month until September 2026, but only maintained that rhythm in April. And then the group tripled the increase to 411,000 barrels per day in May, June and July, and facing August has decided to accelerate the rhythm to the 548,000 barrels mentioned. The decision of these countries is part of the goal that has been marked to Recover market share by price reduction. In fact, this last increase in production will accelerate the recovery of crude oil production one year earlier than initially planned. Also, this decision also serves as 'punishment' to those countries that maintain an overproduction of oil, such as Iraq and Kazakhstan. «Regardless of their reasoning, additional barrels will increase the oil supply prospects for the second half of the year and Price will inevitably ballast. However, the instinctive reaction to the OPEC news was relatively mild, «said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. In his opinion,» a decision of this magnitude «could have made oil fallen strong prices Press the American shale production further«.» The offer will continue to increase, which inevitably opens the door to a cheaper oil«This analyst concludes.
OPEC tension
For their part, Bankinter strategists comment that the news «will negatively affect the price of oil for several reasons.» First, he mentions that the OPEC presented its overall demand estimates and collected a reduction from it, so we will not find a «lower demand and greater production». Secondly, they mention that the increase in production «shows the strong divergence of opinions within the OPEC and is an answer to several countries that are producing above their quotas.» In addition, Bank's strategists add, «This tension between them will be exacerbated in the coming months Since a scenario of moderation of the price, due to deceleration of the economy, (Chinese tariffs and weakness), boom of clean energy and greater efficiency, will lead members to try to produce more to compensate for this price drop and avoid reducing their global fee. » oil will close this year by $ 68 and in $ 65 in 2026.
