Maravillas Delgado in 1971, John Connolly, secretary of the United States Treasury, pronounced a phrase that would resonate for decades: «The dollar is our currency, but your problem.» That year, the United States first recorded from the beginning of its global hegemony a current account deficit that took Nixon on August 15 to interrupt television broadcasts to offer a message that would change the world economy forever: «I have ordered the Secretary Connally to temporarily suspend the convertibility of the dollar by gold.» The Bretton Woods system created 25 years had just ceased to exist to give way to the era of finance of the global economy. Much has rained since then, but there is something that has always remained: the centrality of the dollar as a reserve currency of the system, the American resolution to the deficit current and their willingness to take measures to correct them even if the policies enter you in non -cartographic waters. They replace Nixon with Trump and will observe that parallels are evident, both in the phobias and in the audacity of policies. Although today world attention is concentrated in Trump's tariff policy, it should be remembered that what the globalized world truly supports is not trade, but a global financial system that allows some countries to maintain deficits while others accumulate surpluses. For every dollar of international trade there are seven dollars in financial transactions and, as a consequence of them, the European and Asian allies of the United States, together with China, systematically transfer saving and wealth so that that country can continue to consume and invest above their capacities. And we all benefit from it. We have so long made it that the first five US creditors – Japan, China, the United Kingdom, Luxembourg and Canada – have 10% of the total American debt, equivalent to 11% of the American GDP. Although when this issue arises, there is a lot of China, it is very frequently forgotten that Japan is the first creditor and it is silenced how that position has come to occupy. The story is simple, but disturbing. For three decades, Japan has had low interest rates- even negative- that have been used by investors around the world to make Carry Trade: they have borrowed in yen and those resources have invested them in assets called in other currencies and with much higher yields. Data kill stories: Japanese investors have 3.7 Spanish billions of dollars in external assets, of which 1.1 billion are American treasuries (bonds). When those «Japanese» are added global investors what figures reach 24 Spanish dollars: 5.5 times Japanese GDP. This savings mountain is distributed globally and finances leverage investment operations that sometimes reach up to 60 times. This is how we have worked … The problem is that in life the Ceteris Paribus does not exist. In Japan things have begun to change. The Japanese bono today exhibits record yields in 25 years, and the Carry Trade has begun to revert following a classic script: the operators liquidate their leveraged positions selling their assets called dollars, particularly technological actions and treasury bonds, and as a consequence the Yen is appreciated (+8% in 2025), the dollar depreciates and the US bonus at 30 years exceeds 30 years 5%. Expressions such as Sudden Stop, Capital Flights and Long-Term Commitments, previously reserved for emerging countries, disturbingly begins to mutter through the walls of Wall Street. To worsen the panorama, Trump's expansive budgetary policy – his “Big and Beautiful Bill” – has begun to move consciences and the 30 -year bonus is already above 5%. It is not convenient to look the other way: the combination of Japanese capital repatriations, the narrowing of global interest rates and US tax irresponsibility make up a diabolical trinity diabol 10 years between 50 and 100 basic points approaching the threshold in which its yield adjusted by inflation is higher than the trends of the American economy. If r is greater than g … the magic of the sustainability of the American debt is staggered. That is why Scoot Besent, the current Treasury Secretary, does not miss the opportunity to affirm that the United States will never breach its debt. You may be right. But tsunamis are silent until they are lethal, and alarm signs are already playing in global financial markets.
